Those of us whose professions are political adjacent were prepared to downshift for a few weeks, enjoy the holidays, and otherwise monitor events that seemed to be set to autopilot until reality smacks us in the face somewhere around the new year.  Majorie Taylor Greene had other plans.

We in our business know to keep an eye on press releases and announcements made after 4pm on Fridays.  This is commonly known as a “Friday news dump”. These are things politicians and bureaucrats are trying to hide. 

Ms. Greene’s announcement that she is resigning from Congress was the opposite of that. True to her nature, it was something that demanded immediate attention. The implications of her decision are far reaching.  

The most obvious result of her early resignation is that Georgia’s 14^th District won’t have representation in Congress from January 6^th until a special election can be held.  Her Republican colleagues will be down one member in their caucus.  For Speaker Mike Johnson, his degree of difficulty of passing any measure approaches the maximum when almost all Democrats will vote no, as will Libertarian/Republican Thomas Massie.

In theory, it could get even worse from there.  During the time it takes from her resignation to hold a primary and presumably a runoff, there will be special elections in Tennessee, Texas, and New Jersey. If energized Democrats run the table on those three, the House could be down to a 218-216 margin.  

There will be implications back here in Georgia as well. Once the special election dates are set for Greene’s seat, you can expect State Senators and Representatives to consider taking a run Congress.  Several have already indicated interest, publicly and/or privately.  

Georgia has a “resign to run law” that applies to officials at the state, county, or municipal level.  As soon as one of these elected leaders qualifies for another office that begins before their current term ends (or within 30 days), they are deemed to have resigned.

Greene’s resignation will be effective on January 5^th.  The Georgia General Assembly gavels into session on January 12^th.  It’s quite likely that several members’ seats would be vacated as current holders look to move up to Washington, or possibly as members of the Georgia House look at moving over to a newly vacated Senate seat.  

As the resign to run law applies to local officials as well, you could have county commissions, city councils, and school boards also looking to hold special elections early in the new year if some of these officials become part of the dominoes set to fall.

I’d be remiss if not also noting that at one point Greene wanted to run for Governor or Senate, but was apparently dissuaded by President Trump. While her resignation seems to indicate she isn’t looking to return to Washington, there is no Shermanesque statement that she won’t reconsider a run for Governor where polls currently favor “undecided”.

These ripple effects from Greene’s resignation are fairly easy to quantify, if difficult to forecast precisely. Others will take more time to see how it plays out.

Ostensibly, Greene’s resignation is the result of a fallout with President Trump. Presidents don’t usually get “lame duck” status until after their midterms, though it is a gradual process and affects every administration differently.

Even anti-Trump Republicans acknowledge the GOP is currently the party of Trump. This extends beyond the White House. His network now holds the top spots at the Republican National Committee. Neither donors nor other elected Republicans want to find themselves opposite the wishes of the President.

You have had candidates operate independently of the President without attacking him head on.  Governor Brian Kemp is the poster child for these Republicans.  Those who did so while delivering for their constituents have not only survived, but thrived. 

Others that have taken the path to assert they were actually the heart and soul of the party while attacking Trump as Greene is now doing have been less successful.  The local poster child for this former Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan.  He’s currently a candidate for Governor.  As a Democrat.

The flip side of this conformity is that when President Trump isn’t on the ballot, a large number of Trump voters don’t show up. These are voters Republican operatives are well aware didn’t historically vote for the GOP and often didn’t vote at all prior.

This raises the biggest open ended question of all. Is Greene’s defection a one-off tiff, or is it a sign that some early movers in the MAGA movement are looking to 2028 or beyond?

This weekend’s news cycle and the ripple effects for the next few months will be all about Majorie Taylor Greene. How the questions are ultimately answered will tell us a lot about the GOP under late-stage Trump.