S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the April 2025 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 2.7% annual gain in April 2025, a slight decrease from the previous reading in March 2025. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.7% annual return for April, down from a 3.4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.8% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, down from a 4.1% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.9% increase in April, followed by Chicago and Detroit with annual increases of 6.0% and 5.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw slight upward trends in April, posting gains of 0.6%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices both reported gains of 0.7%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.4%. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices saw a -0.3% decrease.

ANALYSIS

"The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their most modest pace in nearly two years," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor.

"The National Composite Index posted a 2.7% annual gain in April, marking its slowest year-over-year appreciation since mid-2023. This deceleration was broad-based, with the 20-City Composite advancing 3.4% and the 10-City Composite up 4.1%—both substantially below their recent peaks. The composition of these gains tells an important story: Approximately 1.7 percentage points of April's annual increase occurred over the past six months, indicating that price momentum has been concentrated in the recent spring selling season rather than sustained throughout the year.

"Regional performance revealed a dramatic shift from pandemic-era patterns. New York led all metros with a robust 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago (6.0%) and Detroit (5.5%)—a lineup that would have been unthinkable during the height of the Sun Belt surge. Meanwhile, former leaders stumbled: Tampa fell 2.2% year-over-year and Dallas turned negative at -0.2%, becoming the only two metros to post annual declines. San Francisco managed just 0.2% growth, while Phoenix (+1.3%) and Miami (+1.4%) barely registered gains. This geographic rotation reflects the fundamental economics now driving the market: Affordability constraints have hit previously overheated markets hardest, while traditionally stable markets with more reasonable price levels are attracting renewed interest.

"April's monthly performance showed continued seasonal strength but with notable cooling from March's peak. Eighteen metros posted positive monthly gains before seasonal adjustment, led by Detroit (+1.5%), Boston (+1.5%), and New York (+1.2%). However, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index actually declined 0.4%, suggesting that April's 0.6% raw gain was weaker than typical spring patterns would predict. This divergence between raw and seasonally adjusted figures hints that the market's seasonal rhythms may be dampening as affordability pressures intensify.

"The underlying market dynamics remain challenging but not dire. Mortgage rates sustained their mid-6% range throughout April, keeping monthly payment burdens near generational highs and effectively pricing out significant segments of potential buyers. Yet housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared.

"We're witnessing a housing market in transition," Godec concluded. "The era of broad-based, rapid price appreciation appears over, replaced by a more selective environment where local fundamentals matter more than national trends. For investors and policymakers alike, this shift toward geographic divergence and moderate growth may actually represent a healthier, more sustainable trajectory than the unsustainable boom we experienced just a few years ago."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for April 2025. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

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